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The biggest contribution to the sharp rise in the 2023 forecast came from forecasts deviations and a change in forecasting approach. "The central bank did not only provide an inflation forecast that is in line with economists predictions but... the emphasis in the report very much matched those of the market. We had not seen this from the central bank in many years. CENTRAL BANK INDEPENDENCEEconomists expect the policy rate to rise further to 25% by year-end, still leaving real rates negative. "Defining interest rate hikes as sufficient or insufficient can only be done after inspecting the intricacies of this holistic approach," she said.

Persons: Hafize Gaye Erkan, Erkan, Nilufer Sezgin, Sahap Kavcioglu, Erdogan, Ali Kucukgocmen, Daren Butler, Andrew Heavens, Bernadette Baum Organizations: Wall Street, CENTRAL, Ece Toksabay, Thomson Locations: ANKARA, Ankara

But it was the repeated use of the word holistic - or "bütüncül" - by the former Goldman Sachs banker and Turkey's first female central bank chief that caught most of the attention. "We are making the gradual and steady rate hikes more holistic and stronger through quantitative tightening and selective credit tightening," Erkan told the news conference. "Unless the credit and monetary tightening really kick in, investors would expect the central bank to hike more aggressively," he said. "She clearly wants to be the face of Turkish monetary policy making," said Neuberger Berman's Nazli. "We saw a person who seems to be capable of being a central bank governor, compared to previous governors, but cautious."

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Erkan, Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey's, Kaan Nazli, Neuberger Berman, policymaker Mehmet Simsek, Tim Ash, Erdogan, Ash, Marek Drimal, Neuberger Berman's Nazli, swerved, Emre Akcakmak, Karin Strohecker, Libby George, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: Turkey's, Ministry, BlueBay Asset Management, Societe Generale, East Capital, Thomson Locations: Rosario, London

☆ Turkey's central bank says inflation is set to hit 58% — more than double its previous estimate
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Turkish Central Bank Governor Hafize Gaye Erkan answers questions during a news conference for the Inflation Report 2023-III in Ankara, Turkey on July 27, 2023. Turkey's central bank expects inflation to hit 58% by the end of 2023, its new governor Hafize Gaye Erkan said in her debut news conference Thursday, as she committed to "restore anchoring of expectations as well as predictability." The new forecast is more than double the 22.3% outlined in the central bank's last inflation report three months ago. This expectation was met later in the month, when the central bank almost doubled its key interest rate from 8.5% to 15%, its first hike since March 2021. In her press conference Thursday, Erkan said food inflation is expected to top 60% at the end of the year.

Persons: Turkish Central Bank Governor Hafize Gaye Erkan, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Erkan Organizations: Turkish Central Bank Governor Locations: Ankara, Turkey, Turkey's

☆ Turkey's Erdogan appoints three deputy governors to central bank
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan addresses supporters at the Presidential Palace after his victory in the second round of the presidential election, Ankara, Turkey, May 29, 2023. REUTERS/Umit Bektas/File PhotoISTANBUL, July 28 (Reuters) - Turkish's President Tayyip Erdogan named three deputy governors to the central bank, the country's official gazette said early on Friday, hours after the bank vowed to continue gradual monetary tightening and raised its end-2023 inflation forecast. Osman Cevdet Akcay, Fatih Karahan and Hatice Karahan were appointed as deputy central bank governors, according to a decision published in the official gazette. On Thursday, Turkey's central bank raised its end-2023 inflation forecast sharply to 58% and said it would continue monetary tightening. In what is seen as a pivot to economic orthodoxy, Erdogan appointed Mehmet Simsek as finance minister and Erkan as central bank governor shortly after his re-election in May.

Persons: Tayyip Erdogan, Umit, Osman Cevdet Akcay, Fatih Karahan, Hatice Karahan, Yapi, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Erdogan, Mehmet Simsek, Emrah Sener, Taha Cakmak, Mustafa Duman, Ezgi Erkoyun, Leslie Adler, Jamie Freed Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Amazon, Thomson Locations: Ankara, Turkey, ISTANBUL, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Turkey's

☆ Investors look beyond Turkey rate hike disappointment, for now
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-21 | by ( Jorgelina Do Rosario | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"There is a huge gap between rates and inflation, but investors still have faith in this policy shift," Peach said. "They will tolerate a gradual tightening cycle if the key rate rises towards 30% at the end of the year." International bonds are still widely held by foreign investors, though much less so the domestic ones exposed to the lira currency's wild swings. BETTER BUFFERSRising central bank reserves are another positive sign. JPMorgan raised its inflation outlook for Turkey after the rate hike, now expecting year-end inflation at 57% versus 50% previously.

Persons: Hafize Gaye Erkan, Tayyip Erdogan, Nick Eisinger, Liam Peach, Peach, Paul McNamara, Emre Akcakmak, It's, Cagri Kutman, Jorgelina, Karin Strohecker, John Stonestreet Organizations: LONDON, Vanguard, Capital Economics, GAM Investments, Net, East Capital, JPMorgan, United Arab, KNG Securities, Thomson Locations: Turkey, London, United Arab Emirates, Rosario

Many investors think that will only happen if interest rates go to levels just too high for investors to pass up. "You wonder whether they have left it too late" said Mikhail Volodchenko at one of Europe's largest fund managers AXA IM. Reuters Graphics4/LOCAL PROBLEMSIn contrast to the dollar bonds, Turkey's 'local' lira-denominated bonds have had a shocker. Even if the lira is taken out of the equation the bonds are still down around 13% since Erdogan's election win. Reuters Graphics($1 = 0.8920 euros)Reporting by Marc Jones and Canan Sevgili Editing by Shri NavaratnamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Tayyip Erdogan, Erdogan, Mehmet Şimşek, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Mikhail Volodchenko, Enver Erkan, Yatirim, Treasuries, COVID, Wednesday Erdogan, Simon Lue, Fong, Vontobel, Turkey's, Jeff, Michael Metcalfe, Metcalfe, Marc Jones, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: LONDON, AXA, Reuters, JPMorgan EMBI Global, NATO, Investment, Wednesday, United Arab Emirates, JPMorgan GBI, Street Global Markets, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: Central, Turkish, Nigeria, Argentina, Turkey, U.S, Arab, Swiss, Lira

Sweden, Switzerland and the European Central Bank also tightened policy, taking the total monthly tally of hikes to 225 basis points last month. The latest G10 moves bring the total 2023 rate hike tally among G10 central banks to 950 bps across 28 hikes. "The last leg of inflation reduction to central bank targets may be the most challenging, in our view." Thirteen out of 18 central banks in the Reuters sample of developing economies had interest rate setting meetings last month. This was the second biggest rate hike in recent times since Russia was forced to deliver an emergency 1,050 bps rate hike following its invasion of Ukraine.

Persons: Henry Nicholls, Tiffany Wilding, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Karin Strohecker, Vincent Flasseur, William Maclean Organizations: Bank of England, REUTERS, Australia, European Central Bank, Reuters, U.S, Vanguard, Thomson Locations: City, London, Britain, Norway, Canada, Sweden, Switzerland, U.S . Federal, Turkey's, Russia, Ukraine, China's

The rate hike came in the first policy meeting under new Central Bank Governor Hafize Gaye Erkan. The central bank's net reserves rose to $9.19 billion in the week to June 23, its biggest rise on record. Although the central bank's reserves have rebounded since mid-June, state banks are still selling dollars to meet demand from maturing lira deposit accounts known as KKM. Authorities were not seeking to support the lira and the central bank maintained its stance of not selling via state banks, the person added, requesting anonymity. "The committee evaluated that the current monetary policy framework is far from achieving the 5% inflation target, given the inflation outlook and upside risks," the central bank said.

Persons: Tayyip Erdogan, Central Bank Governor Hafize Gaye Erkan, Erkan, Erdogan, Nevzat Devranoglu, Jonathan Spicer, Daren Butler, Christina Fincher Organizations: Central Bank Governor, Reuters, Authorities, stoke, Thomson Locations: Turkey, ANKARA

With the use of central bank reserves to protect the lira’s value before the election, reserves fell to a historical low in early June, with net reserves at minus $5.7 billion. Hence, there is no use of foreign exchange reserves and a period of increasing reserves has started," he added. His comments echoed the view of bankers that the central bank had "completely stopped" using its reserves. CENTRAL BANK MEASURESUnder new central bank steps announced at the weekend, the securities maintenance ratio that banks are required to allocate to their foreign currency deposit was reduced to 5% from 10%. The new regulation said banks whose lira deposits are less than 57% of total deposits will have to hold an additional seven percentage points of securities, compared to the previous seven additional points applied to banks that held less than 60% lira deposits.

Persons: Murad Sezer, Lira, Tayyip Erdogan, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Enver Erkan, Daren Butler, Canan, Jonathan Spicer, Emelia Sithole Organizations: REUTERS, Securities, Bankers, Thomson Locations: Istanbul, Turkey, ANKARA, backtrack, Turkish

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Rate hikes and red lights
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. But May's inflation reading for the U.K. was a scorcher: Inflation last month remained unchanged from April, while core inflation actually rose from 6.8% to 7.1% year over year. Turkey's welcome hikeTurkey's central bank — under its new governor Hafize Gaye Erkan — doubled the country's interest rate from 8.5% to 15%. Yet market strategists from UBS and JPMorgan Chase and are already warning that the stock market may be overvalued.

Persons: BOE's, BOE, Hafize Gaye Erkan —, Recep Tayyip Erdogan's, Jerome Powell, Martin Gruenberg, Ocado, JPMorgan Chase Organizations: CNBC, of England, Federal, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, UBS, JPMorgan Locations: —

☆ Turkish lira sinks to fresh lows following the central bank's interest rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Turkey's Taksim Square, with the figure of Kemal Ataturk, the first president, and the Turkish flag in the background. The Turkish lira sank to new record lows after Turkey's central bank raised the country's benchmark interest rate by 650 basis points in a dramatic monetary policy reversal. The central bank lifted its key interest rate by almost double, from 8.5% to 15% Thursday, marking the country's first hike since March 2021. The lira — which has been extending its plunge since President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's reelection — was last trading at 24.97 against the greenback. Newly appointed Governor Hafize Gaye Erkan hinted at more hikes until the inflation situation in the country improves.

Persons: Turkey's, Kemal Ataturk, Recep Tayyip Erdogan's, —, Steve Hanke, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Erkan Organizations: Turkish, Johns Hopkins University

☆ Turkey's lira hits fresh record lows after rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

ISTANBUL, June 23 (Reuters) - The Turkish lira weakened as much as 2.8% to a fresh record low early on Friday, extending losses as the central bank's large rate hike a day earlier, reversing President Tayyip Erdogan's policy, fell short of market expectations. The lira last traded at 25.2015, some 1.3% weaker than Thursday's close. At its weakest point of 25.59 it was nearly 27% weaker against the U.S. currency this year. The move marked a change in course after years of monetary easing in which the one-week repo rate (TRINT=ECI) had been cut to 8.5% from 19% in 2021 in an unorthodox policy pursued despite soaring inflation. Reporting by Can Sezer; Editing by Daren ButlerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Tayyip Erdogan's, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Erdogan, Erkan, Daren Butler Organizations: Thomson Locations: ISTANBUL, Turkey's

☆ Analysis: Investors lament lost opportunity after unconvincing Turkish rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

REUTERS/Murad Sezer/IllustrationLONDON, June 23 (Reuters) - Foreign investors hoping for a game-changing rate hike from Turkey's newly appointed central bank chief said Thursday's disappointing move to a key rate of just 15% could keep some money on the sidelines. "They lost one perfect chance to demonstrate that they mean business," said Viktor Szabo, emerging markets investment director with Abrdn. But analysts said that after Thursday's decision, Erkan and Simsek would need to work even harder to prove the country had indeed shifted course. Already in the week to June 16, foreign investor holdings of Turkish government bonds had fallen by $16.2 million. "I don't think investors will throw in the towel just yet because I think there is still expectation there is more to come in the coming months," said Kaan Nazli, portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman.

Persons: Murad Sezer, Thursday's, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Viktor Szabo, Abrdn, it's, It's, Tayyip Erdogan, Mehmet Simsek, Eric Fine, Marek Drimal, Simsek, Dan Wood, William Blair, Fitch, Erdogan, Erkan, Kaan, Neuberger Berman, Karin Strohecker, Marc Jones, Toby Chopra Organizations: REUTERS, Societe Generale, Thomson Locations: Istanbul, Turkey, VanEck

☆ Smaller-than-expected Turkey rate hike hits lira, bonds
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, June 22 (Reuters) - Turkey's new central bank governor Hafize Gaye Erkan delivered a smaller-than-expected interest rate hike at her first rate meeting on Thursday, sending the lira and the country's dollar-denominated sovereign bonds sharply lower. The bank lifted its key rate 650 basis points to 15% compared to the median of 21% expected in a Reuters poll. "On the other hand they are promising more tightening ahead... so you have to give them the benefit of the doubt." "I am more worried about the medium-term outlook which is likely to see further lira depreciation. TIM ASH, EM SENIOR SOVEREIGN STRATEGIST, BLUEBAY ASSET MANAGEMENT"Ouch - disappointing.

Persons: Hafize Gaye Erkan, PIOTR MATYS, Erkan, Erdogan, PETER KISLER, JON HARRISON, Amruta Khandekar, Ali Kucukgocmen, Marc Jones, Libby George, Karin Strohecker, Hugh Lawson Organizations: Thomson

☆ Turkey hikes interest rates as Erdogan reverses policy on fighting inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-22 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +1 min

London CNN —Turkey’s central bank hiked interest rates to 15% from 8.5% Thursday in a dramatic reversal of its unorthodox policy of cutting the cost of borrowing to tame painfully high inflation. Annual consumer price inflation has come down from a two-decade high of 85.5% in October but was still almost 40% in May. This is the first rate decision by Turkey’s central bank since last month’s reelection of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Erdogan had ordered his central bank to cut rates nine times since late 2021, when inflation around the world started to accelerate, whereas most economies have raised rates. In that time, the value of the Turkish lira has crashed almost 170% to stand at a record low of 23.60 against the US dollar on Thursday.

Persons: Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Goldman Sachs, Erdogan, Erdogan —, —, Mehmet Simsek, Turkey’s, Merrill Lynch Organizations: London CNN

☆ Morning Bid: How high will BoE go?
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

After a hotter than anticipated inflation report on Wednesday, markets priced in a nearly 50% chance that the BoE would opt for a half a percentage point hike. Economists, polled by Reuters last week, unanimously expected the BoE to raise interest rates by 25 bps to 4.75%, their highest since 2008. Markets are pricing in a 72% chance of a 25 bps hike next month and then no more, according to CME FedWatch tool. Swiss National Bank and Norway's Norges Bank are also due to announce their policy decisions, with a 25 basis point hike widely expected from both central banks. Reuters GraphicsKey developments that could influence markets on Thursday:Economic events: Policy rate decision from BoE, Turkey's central bank, Swiss National Bank and Norway's Norges BankReporting by Ankur Banerjee in Singapore; Editing by Muralikumar AnantharamanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Ankur Banerjee, BoE, Jerome Powell, Powell, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Muralikumar Organizations: Ankur, Bank of England, Reuters, Federal, Swiss National Bank, Norway's Norges Bank, Thomson Locations: Europe, China, Hong Kong, Asia, Japan, Turkey's, Singapore

☆ Turkey's central bank hikes interest rate to 15% in dramatic U-turn to tackle 40% inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-22 | by ( Natasha Turak | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Residents waiting at a bus stop under a large Turkish flag in Istanbul, Turkey, on Sunday, April 30, 2023. Turkey's central bank jacked up the country's key interest rate Thursday, almost doubling it from 8.5% to 15% as the new economic administration of recently re-elected President Recep Tayyip Erdogan embarked on a dramatic monetary policy U-turn. The bank said that there will be further gradual monetary tightening until the inflation picture in the country improves. The whopping 650-basis-point rate rise is the country's first since March 2021, but was below analyst expectations of a 1,150-basis-point hike to 20%. Not enough," Timothy Ash, emerging markets strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, wrote in an note via email.

Persons: Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Timothy Ash, — Organizations: Turkish, BlueBay Asset Management Locations: Istanbul, Turkey, Turkey's

The central bank said inflation will come under further pressure. Erdogan said last week he approved the steps Simsek would take with the central bank, suggesting he had given the green light to rate hikes. The central bank's key rate remains below deposit rates that reach up to 40% and real rates are still deeply negative. The central bank's net reserves fell to a record low of negative $5.7 billion last month. Authorities hope foreign investors and hard currency will return after a years-long exodus, potentially reducing the central bank's need to intervene to keep the lira stable.

Persons: Tayyip Erdogan's, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Erkan, Erdogan, Mehmet Simsek, Piotr Matys, Ezgi Erkoyun, Ali Kucukgocmen, Christina Fincher, Daren Butler Organizations: Reuters Graphics, Wall Street, InTouch, Reuters, Thomson Locations: ISTANBUL, Ankara

☆ Turkish central bank to hike rates sharply in post-election pivot
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( Ali Kucukgocmen | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

But the level remains uncertain as the central bank has not given any signals as to its next steps, including the size or pace of potential hikes. Some economists have expressed doubt about Erdogan's commitment to abandoning his unorthodox policy of low rates, which led the central bank to slash its policy rate from 19% in 2021 to 8.5% currently. The median estimate for the policy rate at end-2023 was 30%, with forecasts ranging from 18% to 35%. He named Naci Agbal as central bank governor in Nov. 2020 but, after some sharp rate hikes, replaced him less than five months later. The central bank is scheduled to announce its rate decision at 1100 GMT on Thursday.

Persons: Murad Sezer, Tayyip Erdogan, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Malek Drimal, Erdogan, Mehmet Simsek, Moody's, Naci, Simsek, Ali Kucukgocmen, Marc Jones, Jonathan Spicer, Daren Butler, Christina Fincher Organizations: REUTERS, Societe Generale, stoke, Thomson Locations: Istanbul, Turkey, ISTANBUL

☆ Turkey lifts minimum wage by 34% to address inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

ANKARA, June 20 (Reuters) - Turkey raised monthly minimum wage by another 34% beginning on July 1, the government said on Tuesday, bringing it to a net 11,402 lira ($483) for the second half of the year in an effort to address soaring inflation. "The minimum wage assessment commission completed its work with an agreement between the workers and employers," Labour Minister Vedat Isikhan said in announcing the decision. Inflation is well above the official 5% target and touched a 24-year peak of 85.5% in October, prompting Ankara to raise the minimum wage by 100% over the course of last year. Annual inflation dipped to 39.6% in May as the government provided natural gas free of charge, offsetting price rises in other goods. The central bank is holding its policy-setting meeting on Thursday and is expected to start ramping up its rate from 8.5% currently.

Persons: Vedat Isikhan, stoked, Tayyip Erdogan, Mehmet Simsek, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Huseyin Hayatsever, Daren Butler, Jonathan Spicer Organizations: Labour, Thomson Locations: ANKARA, Turkey, Ankara

☆ Take Five: Keep calm and raise rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

June 16 (Reuters) - The Bank of England is facing a stormy gilts market while Turkey's new governor is expected to ramp up rates sharply at central bank meetings in the week to come. Markets show traders are placing an almost one-in-five chance the BoE will raise rates by half a point next week, up from near zero at the start of June. Reuters Graphics2/ECONOMIC CHECK UPA raft of decidedly hawkish noises from big central banks - including the Fed - has once again raised questions about how much central bank tightening is accelerating a global slowdown. U.S. manufacturing contracted for a seventh straight month, as new orders continued to plummet amid higher interest rates. May's blockbuster employment report could also provide more leeway for the RBA to tighten rates further.

Persons: Antony Blinken, Kevin Buckland, Lewis Krauskopf, Amanda Cooper, Karin Strohecker, BoE, confab, Philip Lowe, Ajay Banga, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Tayyip Erdogan, Erdogan, Mehmet Simsek, Philippa Fletcher Organizations: Bank of England, U.S, Reuters, Reserve Bank of, Investors, Ukraine, Conference, New, Pact, World Bank, Thomson Locations: Beijing, London, Paris, Tokyo, New York, United States, Europe, Japan, U.S, Australia, China, Dnipro, Ukraine

☆ Morning Bid: The ECB won't throw a curve ball
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

It's a given the ECB will deliver its eighth straight rate hike of 25 bps, and confirm that the pace of quantitative tightening will pick up. They might hike again in July and September, is the broad view, putting the inflation battle ahead of the growth slowdown. Macro forecasts are also due but are unlikely to change ECB President Christine Lagarde's determination and view that "there is no clear evidence that underlying inflation has peaked". Reuters GraphicsNever say never, but ING believes markets are "priced to perfection" for the ECB, with at least two rate rises, including Thursday's, in the price. In Asia, Japan's stock market (.N225) continued to scale fresh 33-year highs, while China's economy continued to underwhelm.

Persons: Vidya Ranganathan, It's, Christine Lagarde's, Jerome Powell, Hafize Gaye, Bank of England's Jon Cunliffe, Edmund Klamann Organizations: Vidya, European, ECB, ING, Fed, Bank of England's, Thomson Locations: U.S, Asia, China, Turkey, Brussels

☆ Erdogan sees swift steps from new finance minister but says his own monetary views unchanged
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"Some of our friends should not be mistaken, such as (asking) 'Is our president going for a serious change in interest rate policies?'" "But upon the thinking of our treasury and finance minister, we have accepted that he will take steps swiftly, comfortably with the central bank," Erdogan said. Analysts at leading investment banks now expect Turkey's central bank to start ramping up rates at its monetary policy committee meeting on June 22. Erdogan said he told the new central bank governor about his expectations. "God willing, neither our finance minister nor our central bank governor will embarrass us and I think we will hopefully obtain positive results."

Persons: Erdogan, Tayyip Erdogan, Mehmet Simsek, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Simsek, Orhan Coskun, Nevzat Devranoglu, Huseyin Hayatsever, Ali Kucukgocmen, Daren Butler, Peter Graff Organizations: stoke, Authorities, Wall Street, Toksabay, Thomson Locations: ANKARA, Azerbaijan, Turkish, Ankara

☆ JPMorgan expects Turkey central bank to lift rates to 25% on June 22
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

LONDON, June 12 (Reuters) - JPMorgan said on Monday it expects Turkey's central bank to hike interest rates to 25% from the current 8.5% at its June meeting, adding this could come with forward guidance suggesting smaller hikes ahead if needed. June 22 is the first scheduled policy meeting after Hafize Gaye Erkan was appointed as central bank governor on Friday. "We maintain our year-end policy rate forecast at 30%, with risks on the upside," Nicolaie Alexandru-Chidesciuc wrote in a note to clients. "We forecast a recession in 2H23 on the back of a tightening in credit conditions." The Wall Street bank confirmed it expected the country to tip into recession in the second half of the year due to tightening credit conditions.

Persons: Hafize Gaye Erkan, Nicolaie Alexandru, Chidesciuc, Karin Strohecker, Amanda Cooper Organizations: JPMorgan, Thomson Locations: 2H23

"It is clear that to ensure economic confidence, legal consistency is a must," one of the senior officials said. Deniz Ozen, lawyer for the Turkish Workers' Party MP, said authorities are violating Turkish law by keeping him in jail. Emma Sinclair-Webb, Turkey director of Human Rights Watch, said a discredited justice system is a matter of concern especially for European investors. Reinforcing the apparent U-turn, Erdogan on Friday named Hafize Gaye Erkan as central bank governor, paving the way for interest rate hikes. "No matter the economic reforms, the investment will not significantly ramp up," he said.

Persons: Erdogan, Tayyip Erdogan, Mehmet Simsek, Simsek, Mehmet Gun, Orhan Turan, Turkey's, Osman, Deniz Ozen, Emma Sinclair, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Howard Eissenstat, Burcu Karakas, Jonathan Spicer, Catherine Evans Organizations: Better Justice Association, Istanbul Convention, Gazette, Bank, AK Party, of Human, Human Rights, Turkish Workers ' Party, Finance, St, Lawrence University, Thomson Locations: ISTANBUL, Turkey, Istanbul, Osman Kavala, Kavala, Webb

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